Storm Chasing In The Tri-State (Part 2 Initiating The Plan)

In Part one we talked about the importance of pre-planning and using methods to scout the terrain and your route.  In part 2 we'll discuss ways to fine tune your target area and prepping your gear to get ready to roll out.  I'll also throw something else out there and that's the importance of sleep.  Staying up all night the day before looking at models will do you no good come the next day.  I know it's hard to sleep the day before a big Moderate/High Risk day but you have to get some rack time.  Get some sleep, wake up make some coffee then start figuring out what you're going to do with a well rested mind.

I'm usually up as the sun start lighting up the eastern horizon.  First thing I like to do in the morning on chase day is let the dog out.  Not because he needs to go out but to feel the air and see the elements.  Look up into the sky watch the clouds and the motion.  I do this for 2 reasons, one it gets all your senses going and awake, two breathing in that morning air gets my mind in the game.  At times you can almost feel the energy in the air.  After a few moments I'm back in the house and turning the computers on.  First thing I check is GR Earth radar.  I like that it gives me the entire lower 48 states and I can see things on a larger scale and loop the images looking for trends.  More often than not there's usually some left over dying MCS in the area.  These left overs can change the day dramatically from what you thought was going to happen before you went to sleep.  If it stays in the area too long the day can be over before it even got started.  Next I'll take a look at the Area Forecast Discussions (AFD) and Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO).  I don't read just my local office but surrounding offices products too.  Once all that info is absorbed, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Day 1 outlook is looked over.  There's tons of great information in the SPC's text products.  It's real easy looking at those nice colors on the map but read those forecast products.  Maps are going to change throughout the day with every SPC update.  Weather is dynamic and always changing, get used to it and make your own call on where you need to be and when to be there.

After all the text products have set in to the brain now it's time to take a look at the model data.  Take the information you get from the models with a grain of salt.  Don't rely on them to the point as if it's a looking glass into the future.  They are not, they're just tools for you to use.  Models do hold value in giving you some idea of how the day might unfold and are pretty good in establishing a timeline for you to plan your day.  Some models tend to be better than others on any given day.  It will be up to you and how much knowledge you have about convective weather that will get you to where you need to be.

Now it's down to the point where it's target area picking time.  If you're like me you've already picked a general area the night before.  Target area's need to be flexible and should never be set in stone as an X on a map.  That X can change on the trip to an area.  Here's two web pages that I use a bunch.  First is the SPC's Mesoanalysis and second the Rapid Refresh HRRR pages.  I'll keep these pages running for most of the day.  What I like to look for, I want to be in an area that has the best forecast CAPE and shear.  Where the two overlap is going to be a "general" target area.  It's up to you to figure out what other dynamics are going to come into play and phase with the target area.  Here's where all the knowledge gained from endless classes about convective weather shines.  If you lack this knowledge there's plenty of outlets to get it.  The Comet Met/Ed website is a great place to start.

Now with the target area picked all that is left is getting you team assembled and get ready to roll out.  Not so fast!  Check all you gear and equipment and make sure it's ready to go.  It's a good idea to pack a cooler with a bunch of food and drinks.  Once you get into the mix it might be hours before you stop again.  During long chase days energy drinks and Gatorade are a big plus.  Check fluid levels in the vehicle and put out all the lucky charms you have.  For sometime we had an unopened fortune cookie that sat on the dash.  Then we switch over to an old GI Joe figure we found.  Now we're using a quarter found while snorkeling in the Gulf of Mexico.  I don't think any of that stuff works but at times it makes light of some situations that you might end up getting into.  We can all use a little luck sometimes.....





Now that the team is on the road the forecasting now switches to the Nowcasting phase.  Meaning you're now going to have to start making sound decisions on what might happen in the next hour.  During this time the target area can also change.  It happens all the time.  As you get nearer, everything gets more fluid and dynamic and a good working knowledge of the road network (scouted during pre-planning) pays off.  As the environment changes so does the plan.  The plan is always evolving and changing throughout the rest of the chase.  If you're the leader of the team it's all on you to make good decisions when it comes to navigating around storms and safety.  Always have an escape route planned for getting out of a bad situation.  This escape changes every time you change location.  Don't take the escape route planning lightly, it could save your teams life one day.

Some tips before you get into the mix.  Make sure the vehicle is topped off and full of fuel before you actually start maneuvering around in the target area.  During that last stop get all the camera and video recorders settings ready to shoot and in a secure place for a quick grab.  Clean the windshield and apply RainX if you have it.  Good visibility is a must.  At times this is the place where you'll interact some with the local community.  Take the time to answer their questions and be engaging.  You could talk to one person that day and might change their thinking how they prepare for severe weather days.  So don't act like it's the end of the world and all hell is fixing to descend on the town in moments.  There's enough of that crap on social media as it is.  We don't need to add more fuel to the Hype Machine.